Flagship Partial Report
Just my macro thoughts and my Autopilot purchases
I apologize for just sending out a partial report today. I’ve been ill with some stomach/intestinal issues all weekend, and it’s interfered with my work. I’ll still be working on finishing the full report tonight and tomorrow (hopefully can release it by tomorrow afternoon), but I wanted to at least release the macro section before this crazy week gets started for my followers. Because of this inconvenience, I’ll post this mini report for everyone to see instead of walling it off this time (the full report with my updated accumulation zones and price targets will still only be for the paid subscribers). These are a couple sections that I normally include and update in the paid weekly reports.
Quick Macro Thoughts
Current Market Regime Opinion: Goldilocks (risk on) - generally favors growth over value, risk assets and cyclicals over defensive assets, high beta over low beta, and US over International
Goldilocks and Reflation are both risk on market regimes
The two risk-off market regimes are Inflation and Deflation; more significant portfolio changes will occur during these times
Specific Relevant Funds/Assets
SPY (S&P 500) - RSI: 48, VAMS: Bullish, Trade Signal: Long
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) - RSI: 47, VAMS: Bullish, Trade Signal: Long
XLV (Healthcare) - RSI: 62, VAMS: Bullish, Trade Signal: Long
IWM (Small Caps) - RSI: 48, VAMS: Bullish, Trade Signal: Long
ACWX (International) - RSI: 66, VAMS: Bullish, Trade Signal: Long
GLD (Gold) - RSI: 61, VAMS: Bullish, Trade Signal: Long
SLV (Silver) - RSI: 58, VAMS: Bullish, Trade Signal: Long
Bitcoin - RSI: 38, VAMS: Bearish, Trade Signal: No position
Ethereum - RSI: 39, VAMS: Bearish, Trade Signal: No position
RSI (Relative Strength Index) meaning - help to indicate if an asset is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30)
VAMS (Volatility-Adjusted Momentum Signal) - helps forecast probable direction of assets over the short to medium term
Weekly macro thoughts
Week 1: Historically, when the S&P 500 has posted a gain during the first five trading days of January, the index has ended the year higher approximately 80–82% of the time. This observation gave rise to the well-known Wall Street saying: “As goes the first five days of January, so goes the year.”
Week 2: Noticeable rotation from mega-cap and technology names to the broader market this week, increasing breadth expansion of investment across other sectors is healthy for continuation of the bull market
Week 3: In President Trump’s speech at Davos, he bragged that the US market “will double in a relatively short period of time.” This helps reinforce the view that the Trump administration will likely continue supporting markets with their policies into the near future, especially with midterm elections looming.
Week 4: Kevin Warsh’s nomination helped to provide the market signal needed to sell off overbought Gold and Silver positions on Friday, 01/30. He’s widely viewed as an “inflation hawk;” however, his economic beliefs broadly demonstrate the belief that growth is part of the solution to economic problems, particularly in AI.
There are fears that he’ll focus more on cutting deficits and potentially raise rates due to inflation; however, it seems more likely he’ll be cutting rates in the effort to help stimulate the economy at this time.
He’s a strong believer that the US cannot rely on government subsidies to achieve growth targets for the long term, and he’s a strong believer in reducing the Fed’s influence to promote real economic growth and other disinflationary forces.
This situation will require careful monitoring over the next few weeks, basically if he leans more to cutting spending and inflation reduction targets, the market could lean more bearish. If he leans more to growth and rate cuts, the market could lean more bullish.
A couple reasons precious metals did so well recently were due to the underwhelming results of DOGE and the perceived high government spending related to the Big Beautiful Bill. When Warsh was introduced, the market took his nomination as bearish precious metals due to his economic views.
Week 5: Based on my opinion and analyses, this fear and recent sell off has pushed prices down of many of the top Megacap stock names to share prices that are 10%+ undervalued at current levels! Over the last couple months, value stocks have been very overbought; whereas, tech and Megacaps have been very oversold.
Week 6: Market regime changed from Reflation back to Goldilocks. This risk-on regime continues to be supported by growth cycle, inflation numbers, monetary policy, deregulatory policies, and liquidity. However, positioning and technical indicators do lean toward continued market choppiness and a likely near term correction in the next few weeks.
Week 7: On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled against President Trump’s IEPPA tariffs. The Trump admin immediately countered with a 10%, then 15% global tariff that is active for the next 150 days. Tariff drama is back, but it’s unlikely to crash as badly as it did this time last year. The market has had time to price in tariff effects on goods and trade. Iran tensions are rising, more company earnings this week, and the State of the Union address is on Tuesday. Industrials, energy, staples, and materials (the safety trade) remain very expensive here.
Week 8: A few items this week
This weekend, the US and Israel attacked Iran. The market hates uncertainty, and geopolitical unrest has historically led to a flight to safety by investors. Investors are usually thankful to have some exposure to gold during these times. However, many of these past corrections have turned out to be excellent buy the dip opportunities on quality companies. Time will tell.
Overall, company earnings have mostly continued growing across the board. Based on historical PEG ratios, many of the top tech companies are trading at their cheapest forward valuation in years. Bears are betting that these forward earnings hit a wall soon, while bulls are betting these companies will continue to deliver on their forward guidance.
Technicals have gotten shaky, but key levels haven’t broken yet. The bull trend remains intact at this point.
Market regime backdrop remains positive for risk assets, and primary index RSIs are in reasonable zones. XLP (consumer staples), XLE (energy), XLU (utilities), and SPLV (low beta) remain in overbought territory at 70, 72, 75, and 79 respectively.
Market seems likely to continue chopping upwards over the medium to long term with a dovish Fed, pro-growth policies, deregulation effects, and positive liquidity cycle. Not financial advice, but as you’ll observe from my purchases below, I continue to buy dips at this point. If the macro and technicals change negatively, you’ll see bigger adjustments in the fund allocations and expanded thoughts here.
This Week’s Allocation Percentages in Autopilot
40% Wolff’s Flagship Fund: high risk balanced fund; at least 20% always goes in here weekly; as you’ll notice from above, most of these stocks still fall comfortably below my accumulation zone targets
If the market pricing irrationality continues, I’ll probably continue loading heavier into the Flagship and Top 15 over the next few weeks!
This week, I deployed 2 additional deposits into the Flagship on Thursday and Friday. Due to the continued AI fears and uncertainty, most of my top picks remain in my very attractive buy zones.
20% Wolff’s ETF Strategy Fund: medium risk balanced fund; at least 20% always goes in here weekly; baskets of stocks (ETFs) are generally considered less risky than individual stocks. This fund’s goal is to outperform the S&P 500 without the highly volatile individual stocks
20% All Weather Fund: low risk balanced fund; at least 20% always goes in here weekly; this is my market crash/black swan insurance and sleep well at night fund
20% Wolff’s Top 15 Fund: growth factor fund; conditions looking promising for my top growth picks at current prices; more investors seem to be acknowledging that IREN and CIFR in particular remain undervalued at these prices
Disclaimer: Past performance of the Wolff Funds or its manager is not indicative of future results, and no assurance can be given that investment objectives, including targeted returns, will be achieved. Investing involves significant risks, including the potential loss of principal, due to market volatility, economic shifts, and sector-specific uncertainties, particularly in high-growth areas like AI, healthcare, and digital assets. Forward-looking statements, such as market outlooks or performance goals, are based on current assumptions and subject to change without notice. Investors should carefully review the fund’s description and consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess suitability based on their risk tolerance and objectives. The Wolff Funds and its affiliates disclaim liability for any losses arising from investment decisions.
Stomach bugs are the worst. :/ Hit the electrolytes, and feel better soon sir!